Warren Buffet "About Investment"

 

 

 

 

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Hello Mr.Buffet, i got two short question.

 

 

How do you find intrinsic value in a company.

 

 

Well, intrinsic value is what is the number that if you were all knowing about the future.

 

 

And could predict all the cash that the business would give you between now and your judgment day.

 

 

Discounted at the proper discount rate, that number is what the intrinsic value of a business is.

 

 

In other word, the only reason for making investment laying out money now is to get more money later on, right?

 

 

That's what investing is all about.

 

 

Now, when you look at a stock, and when you look at a bond.

 

 

So let's say, Untied States government is very easy to tell what you're going to get back.

 

 

It says right on the bond, it says when you get the interest payments. it's says when you get the principal.

<principal : an amount of money lent or borrowed, rather than the interest paid on it>

 

 

So it's very easy to figure out the value of a bond.

 

 

It cound change tomorrow if interest rate change, but,you were, the cash flow are printed on the bond, the cash flow aren't printed on the stock certificate

 

 

That's the job of the analysts is to print out change that stock certificate which represents interest in the business and change that into a bond.

 

 

And say, this is what i think it's going to pay out in the future.

 

 

When we buy, you know, some new machine for Shaw make the carpet, that's we are thinking about obviously then.

 

 

And you all learn that in business school, but it's same thing for a big business 

 

 

If you buy cocacola today, the company is selling for about hundred and ten to fifteen bilion dollars in the market,

<hundred and ten to fifteen : 110 to 115>

 

The question is if you had a hundred and ten or fifteen billion, you would't be listening to me.

 

 

But i would be listening to you instead.

 

 

But the question is would you lay it out today.

 

 

To get what cocacola company is going to deliver to you over the next two or three hundred years.

 

 

Discount rate doesn't make much difference after as you get further out,

 

 

But and that is a question how much cash they are going to give you.

 

 

It isn't a question of,you know, It isn't a question of how many analysts are going to recommend that or what the volume in the stock is or what the chart looks like running?

 

 

It's a question, how much cash is going to give you,

 

 

That is only reason is the true one.

 

 

If you're buying a farm? ,it's true

 

 

If you're buying an apartment house, any financial asset, oil in the ground

 

 

You're laying out cash now to get more cash back later on.

 

 

And the question is how much you're going to get, when are you going to get it, and how sure are you.

 

 

And when i calculate intrinsic value of a business, when we buy a businesses and whether we're buying all of a business or a little piece of a business, 

 

 

I always think we're buying the whole business, Because that's my approach to it

 

 

I look at it and say, what will come out of this business and when.

 

 

And what you really like, of course, is them to be able to use the money they earn.

 

 

And earn higher returns on it as you go along.

 

 

I mean Burksher never distributed anything to its shareholders,

 

 

But it's ability to distributed gose up. as the value of the business we own increases.

 

 

We can compund it internally.

<compound : to calculate interest on both the amount of money invested or borrowed and on the interest that has been added to it>

 

 

But the real question is Burksher selling for we'll say hundred five or so billions now.

 

 

What can we distribute from that hundred if you're going to buy the whole company for hundred five billion now.

 

 

Can we distribute enough cash to you soon enough to make it sensible at present interest rates to lay out that cash now?

 

 

And that's what it gets out doing at the end.

 

 

And if i can't answer that question, you can't buy the stock.

 

 

You can gamble in the stock if you want to, or your neighbors can buy it.

 

 

But if you don't answer that question, and i can't answer that for internet companies.

 

 

For example, there is a lots of companys all kind of companies i can't answer for but i just stay away from those.

 

 

 

 

 

느낀점


워렌버핏님은 말하는 속도가 진짜 빠르다.

제대로 안들려서 뭐라고 하는지 이해하는데 너무 어려웠다.

집중하다보니 또 3시간이 흘러있었다.

---

얼마 받을지 미리 계획하고,

언제 받을것인지도 미리 계획하고,

얼마나 확신하는지도 알아야한다.,



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